Analyzing German Parliamentary Speeches: A Machine Learning Approach for Topic and Sentiment Classification
Lukas Pätz, Moritz Beyer, Jannik Späth, Lasse Bohlen, Patrick Zschech, Mathias Kraus, and Julian Rosenberger
This study investigates political discourse in the German parliament (the Bundestag) by applying machine learning to analyze approximately 28,000 speeches from the last five years. The researchers developed and trained two separate models to classify the topic and the sentiment (positive or negative tone) of each speech. These models were then used to identify trends in topics and sentiment across different political parties and over time.
Problem
In recent years, Germany has experienced a growing public distrust in political institutions and a perceived divide between politicians and the general population. While much political discussion is analyzed from social media, understanding the formal, unfiltered debates within parliament is crucial for transparency and for assessing the dynamics of political communication. This study addresses the need for tools to systematically analyze this large volume of political speech to uncover patterns in parties' priorities and rhetorical strategies.
Outcome
- Debates are dominated by three key policy areas: Economy and Finance, Social Affairs and Education, and Foreign and Security Policy, which together account for about 70% of discussions. - A party's role as either government or opposition strongly influences its tone; parties in opposition use significantly more negative language than those in government, and this tone shifts when their role changes after an election. - Parties on the political extremes (AfD and Die Linke) consistently use a much higher percentage of negative language compared to centrist parties. - Parties tend to be most critical (i.e., use more negative sentiment) when discussing their own core policy areas, likely as a strategy to emphasize their priorities and the need for action. - The developed machine learning models proved highly effective, demonstrating that this computational approach is a feasible and valuable method for large-scale analysis of political discourse.
Host: Welcome to A.I.S. Insights — powered by Living Knowledge. I’m your host, Anna Ivy Summers. Today, we're diving into the world of politics, but with a technological twist. We’ll be discussing a fascinating study titled "Analyzing German Parliamentary Speeches: A Machine Learning Approach for Topic and Sentiment Classification."
Host: Here to break it all down for us is our expert analyst, Alex Ian Sutherland. Alex, welcome to the show.
Expert: Thanks for having me, Anna.
Host: So, this study uses machine learning to analyze political speeches in the German parliament. Before we get into the tech, what’s the big-picture problem the researchers were trying to solve here?
Expert: Well, the study highlights a significant issue in Germany, and frankly, in many democracies: a growing public distrust in political institutions. There's this feeling of a divide between the people and the politicians, what Germans sometimes call "die da oben," or "those up there."
Host: A feeling of disconnect.
Expert: Exactly. The researchers point to surveys showing trust in democracy has fallen sharply. And while we often analyze political sentiment from social media, that’s not the whole story. This study addresses the need to go directly to the source—the unfiltered debates happening inside parliament—to systematically understand what politicians are prioritizing and how they're framing their arguments.
Host: So how do you take thousands of hours of speeches and make sense of them? What was the approach?
Expert: It’s a really clever use of machine learning. The researchers essentially built two separate A.I. models. First, they took a sample of speeches and had human experts manually label them. They tagged each speech with a topic, like 'Economy and Finance' or 'Health', and also with a sentiment – was the tone positive and supportive, or negative and critical?
Host: So they created a "ground truth" dataset.
Expert: Precisely. They then used this labeled data to train the A.I. models. One model learned to identify topics, and the other learned to detect sentiment. Once these models were accurate, they were set loose on the entire dataset of approximately 28,000 speeches, allowing for a massive, automated analysis that would be impossible for humans to do alone.
Host: A perfect job for A.I. So after all that analysis, what were the key findings?
Expert: The results were quite revealing. First, they confirmed that political debate is dominated by a few key areas. About 70% of all discussions centered on just three topics: Economy and Finance, Social Affairs and Education, and Foreign and Security Policy.
Host: No big surprise there. But what about the tone of those debates?
Expert: This is where it gets really interesting. The biggest factor influencing a party's tone wasn't its ideology, but its role in parliament. Parties in the opposition used significantly more negative and critical language than parties in government. The study even showed that when a party's role changes after an election, its tone flips almost immediately.
Host: So, if you're in power, things look rosier. If you're not, you're much more critical.
Expert: Exactly. They also found that parties on the political extremes consistently used a much higher percentage of negative language compared to centrist parties. And perhaps the most counterintuitive finding was that parties tend to be most critical when discussing their own core policy areas.
Host: That does seem odd. Why would they be more negative about the topics they care about most?
Expert: It's a rhetorical strategy. By framing their signature issues with critical language, they emphasize the urgency of the problem and position themselves as the only ones with the right solution. It’s a way to command attention and underline the need for action.
Host: This is all fascinating for political science, Alex, but our listeners are business leaders. Why should they care about the sentiment of German politicians? What are the business takeaways here?
Expert: This is the crucial part. There are three major implications. First is political risk analysis. For any company operating in or doing business with Germany, this kind of analysis provides an objective, data-driven look at policy priorities. It’s a leading indicator of where future legislation and regulation might be heading, far more reliable than just reading news headlines.
Host: So it helps you see what's really on the agenda.
Expert: Right. The second is for government relations and public affairs. This analysis shows you which parties are most critical on which topics. If your business wants to engage with policymakers, you can tailor your message to align with the "problems" they're already highlighting. It helps you speak their language and frame your solutions more effectively.
Host: And the third takeaway?
Expert: The third is about the technology itself. This study provides a powerful template. Businesses can apply this exact same A.I. approach—topic classification and sentiment analysis—to their own vast amounts of text data. Think about customer reviews, employee feedback surveys, or social media comments. This method provides a scalable way to turn all that unstructured talk into structured, actionable insights.
Host: So, to recap: this study used A.I. to analyze thousands of political speeches, revealing that a party's role in government is a huge driver of its tone. We learned that parties strategically use negative language to highlight their key issues.
Host: And for business, this approach offers a powerful tool for political risk analysis, a roadmap for public affairs, and most importantly, a proven A.I. framework for generating deep insights from any large body of text.
Host: Alex Ian Sutherland, thank you so much for breaking this down for us. Your insights were invaluable.
Expert: My pleasure, Anna.
Host: And thanks to our audience for tuning in to A.I.S. Insights — powered by Living Knowledge.
Natural Language Processing, German Parliamentary, Discourse Analysis, Bundestag, Machine Learning, Sentiment Analysis, Topic Classification